Reverse “Bradley Effect”

Posted on October 18, 2008 by Kevin

The “Bradley Effect” refers to a voter telling a pollster that they are going to vote for a black candidate, but not carrying through. This effect has even been found in exit polls in the past.

I discount the Bradley Effect in regards to Barack Obama because it did not appear in Obama primary election polling.

But how about a Bradley Effect working in the other direction. There are many Republicans who are appalled by Sarah Palin, but could they admit to their drinking buddies, spouses (or even to a pollster) that they would vote for the caricatured “most liberal Senator”?

The question of Palin votes vs Palin polls has never been tested nationally. I personally think that once in the voting booth, many Republicans will shudder, hold their noses, and vote Democrat. If there’s a landslide Democratic victory, I’ll take that as evidence for my thesis.

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Conservative cowardice or dishonesty?

Posted on October 18, 2008 by Kevin

I was driving through Alabama Wednesday–nothing but classical music on the public radio station, but there were plenty of Christian talk radio stations, one of which had an interview show with Phyllis Schlafly, the “anti-feminist” I remember from my youth, and now the celebrity on a conservative web site called eagleforum.org.

Schlafly was talking about Obama and William Ayres. She said that some investigator had developed evidence that Ayres had ghost-written Obama’s first book, Dreams from my Father.

A person of integrity takes a position and defends it. Did Schlafly say “I believe that William Ayres wrote the book”? No. Either she believes it and lacks the courage to say so, or she doesn’t believe it and puts the accusation out there dishonestly.

McCain essentially did the same thing in the final debate. He never said “Obama is a closet radical”, or “Ayers was Obama’s mentor” or “Obama is reckless in his associations”. Rather than showing the courage of conviction (surely McCain has the resources to find out the truth of the matter) he just flung an association like a handful of mud. If McCain were courageous and made a concrete accusation, he would be discredited if proven wrong. So he makes an innuendo that he probably doesn’t believe himself.

Dishonest or cowardly? Your pick.

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Supreme Court gets Ohio Voter Registration case right

Posted on October 18, 2008 by Kevin

…but for the wrong reason.

Ohio Republicans sued to have the results of comparisons between new voter registrations and existing state databases (e.g. motor vehicle) made available to local officials. The Supreme Court rejected the suit on the grounds that the Ohio Republican Party had no standing to sue under the law (not commenting on the merits of the suit).

Source: cnn.com, et al.

At first glance it seems a public good to prevent vote fraud, and that this may be done through weeding out bogus voter registrations, and comparisons to state databases sounds like a good tool to help with the weeding. There are two things wrong with this idea:

  • Voter registration fraud has little effect on vote fraud. This is because just having a name on a voter role doesn’t get you into vote. When Mickey Mouse shows up to vote, he might claim he left his ID in his other pants, but he won’t get to vote. No vote, no foul. If he shows a genuine ID, then he IS is some database, whether it matches or not.
  • Matching is error prone. This is how the 2000 election was stolen in Florida, not by butterfly ballots and hanging chads. Florida election officials purged the Florida rolls selectively using matching with national convicted felon databases–both felons who committed no crimes in Florida and by law could still vote, and non-felons who had names similar to convicted felons. Bad matching goes both ways.Consider the hypothetical case of “Washington George”. Mr. George, was mis-keyed in the state DMV database (as “George Washington”), but not the Voter Registration database. If Washington George shows up to vote he may be challenged and have to cast a provisional ballot because of an error.

In my day job, I work with state databases and I know they are in pretty bad shape across the board. I also know that most database matching techniques in the real world are abysmally bad. This doesn’t mean matching cannot be good, but that it usually isn’t.

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McCain – Obama debate 1

Posted on September 27, 2008 by Kevin

I only got to listen to the last half of the debate (audio only) and I gave the edge to McCain. McCain rattled more XXXX-istans than Obama and I thought Obama was struggling to get his points across comprehensibly. I did think the “Senator Obama just doesn’t understand” was overdone. Obama said he had gone to Eastern Europe with Sen. Lugar to oversee the securing of old Soviet missiles. McCain trumped Obama with the claim that he was partly responsible for originating the Nunn-Lugar bill that paid for securing those weapons. Whether McCain’s claim was justified or not, it rang true.

Imagine my surprise this morning to see the polls on CNN that gave the debate to Obama by a huge margin. But it may well be that the difference between my perception and the polls was that I only listened to the last half of the debate.

However, McCain made one big blunder and Obama called him on it.  McCain claimed that Obama had voted against funding the troops (I think twice). Obama replied that McCain had voted to fund the troops with no timetable for withdrawal, and that he had voted to fund the troops WITH a timetable (and both had voted against the opposite). He explained that the differences were about the timetable, not funding the troops. Obama was totally credible at that point, and it was clear to me that McCain had been caught trying mislead the voters with the old voting record manipulation trick. I think this was a hugely embarrassing moment.

I thought one of the substantive points of difference between Obama and McCain was on that preconditions thing. I don’t know how clear it was to the viewers what was going on. When Obama says that he is willing to meet with anyone without preconditions, he means “he” in the sense of “his administration” not himself personally. McCain insisted that it be taken literally and that Obama personally was going to meet with anyone thereby giving that person credibility by having talked with the President of the United States. This was disingenuous of McCain. McCain’s interpretation was, in fact, so unreasonable that I wonder if Obama realized what McCain meant.

Posted in Politics | 2 Comments

Exactly who is running for President?

Posted on September 16, 2008 by Kevin

Listening to the conversations you might think Obama is running against Sarah Palin, or running against George Bush. Who has more experience Obama or Palin? [what kind of a comparison is that?] Is this a sneaky Republican strategy to run Palin against Obama and let McCain sit over in a corner elected as the last man standing?

Posted in Politics | 2 Comments

Funny if it weren’t true – Advance Fee Fraud emails

Posted on September 10, 2008 by Kevin

Here are some of the advance fee fraud offers I’ve gotten recently in email.

My name is Miss Awa. i am a young  girl seeking for your relationtionship…

I know that this letter may be a very big surprise to you, I am giving you my trust…

I want to apologize for contacting you through this manner. My name is Jung Li (Ex-Minister of General Administration of Customs of the Peoples Republic of China).  ..

WE HERE BY NOTIFYING YOU THAT UNION TRUST BANK HAVE BEEN MANDATED TO ISSUE OUT YOUR PAYMENT OF  $1,200,000.00USD  THROUGH ATM CARD …

Please pardon me if my mail has startled you, since we don’t know each other.However, I am compelled to deliver this offer to you…

I know we have not met in person but I have a very profiting proposal which I am sure you can handle. ..

I am Mr.Eduwin.N.Carter, The Auditor General of prime banks here London-England, during the course of our auditing, I discovered a floating fund in an account opened in the bank in 1993…

Pardon me for not having the pleasure of knowing your mindset before making you this offer and it is utterly confidential and genuine by virtue of its nature…

I am Mr. Mike Garang from Accra Ghana; I am the Special Adviser on political matters to the president Republic of Ghana but now in London …

Your Name And Your Contact Details Was Given To This Office In Respect Of  Your Total lnherited/Contract Sum  Owed To You Which You Have Failed To Claim…

My name is miss kate .i saw your profile today and became interested in you, i will also like to know more about you,…

We are contacting you in respect of the transfer of your Approved US$100,000,000 under our custody here in The Central Bank of Nigeria…

My name is David  Nana  am the regional manager of Barclays  bank of Ghana. I got your information on my recent search for an overseas partner among other names…

This message might meet you in utmost surprise however,it’s just my urgent need for a foreign partner that made me contact you for this transaction…

Thank you for giving me your time, it is of great importance for you to take care and understand every word which I have written down below; please be patient and read the explanation in my email…

are pleased to inform you of the announcement today,1st September 2008,of winners of the Nokia Promo, held on 30th of August 2008 as part of our promotional draws…

I know this proposal will come to you as a surprise especially when you do not know the writer, considering the huge sum of money involved which could make any apprehensive…

I am Senator Edward, I got your contacts through my personal research and out of desperation decided to reach you through this medium. I have EURO 5,000,000.00 …

Dear Partner, I just finish on that transfer,get in touch with me for your compensation of $850,000 …

It is my pleasure to let you know abouaece. I didn’t forget your past efforts to asissit me in transffering those funds. Now contact my secretary Castillo Nwanyi) …

Hello,I have an investment proposal and needyour assistance…

I am Barrister Dan Chuk, a solicitor and personal lawyer to client of mine, a national of your country and your relative who has a servicing firm affiliated with the Electric Authority here in Benin…

I am Barrister James Peters, Head of the Legal Department of the United Nations Office Lagos-Nigeria. …

I have deposited the cheque with Capital Trust Bank,to process it into ATM MASTER CARD for you. All the arrangement of processing your cheque of $850.000.00 …

Greetings, I know this message will come to you as a surprise as we have not met before. I have a proposal to make, that might be of interest to you. My late father deposited …

The prestigious Microsoft and AOL has set out and successfully organised a Sweepstakes marking the Annual anniversary,we rolled out over 100,000.000.00(One Hundred Million Great Britain Pounds) …

PERMIT ME TO INFORM YOU OF MY DESIRE OF GOING INTO BUSINESS RELATIONSHIP WITH YOU.  I AM MISS MARY RAVI , THE ONLY CHILD OF LATE MR AND MRS. DANIEL RAVI…

My name is Madam Marisa Mayor . A complete citizen of the Philippines,widow to the late Mr Desmond Mayor who died of ulcer and he has been buried…

DEAR FRIEND I have paid the delivery fees for your cheque and all the necessary arrengement has been made with FEDEX COURIER for the delivering,so contact the FEDEX COURIER with this below information…

Dear friend it is with an heavy hearth getting in contact with you, Our client died intestated and nominated no next of kin to inherit the title of investments made with our bank {CITI-BANK LONDON}…

MY NAME IS MR REMOND NELSON ,I am 61 years Old,suffering from long time cancer of the blood.I have $25.5m …

Compliments , I am Richard Ovie Salim the son of late Ovie Salim from Sudan residing in London. I saw your contact email while browsing through the internet so I decided to contact you hoping you can be trusted to handle this matter and not betray me like Mr. Roberto Del Piero of Italy…

I am Peter A. Sands the Group Chief Executive (Standard Chartered Bank)herein UK, I will need you to execute a project from my bank to your Country…

We are pleased to inform you of the announcement made today, You are among the winners of the TOYOTA CAR INTERNATIONAL PROMOTION PROGRAM …

This is to notify you that you have been chosen By the Board of trustees of the Nestl? Aid Organization based in the Ireland, as one of the final recipients of a Cash Aid/Donation for your own personal, education and business development…

Could you please consider to help me to relocate this sum of Ten million,five hundred thousand dollars(US$.10.5 million) To your country for establishing a medium size industry in your country…

We write to notify you that we have received a pre-advice instruction today from the Ecowas Headquarters on Payment Panel to credit your nominated account with US$15M …

It give me joy to get this mailed addressed to you,My name is Mrs Karen Hellen, First how are you and how is your family, One thing about this …

I am from England Please take this serious, I am taking this liberty anchored on strong desire to ask for your assistance for help. Your consent and urgent attention will greatly be needed,…

I am Miss Ceilline Milan , the legitimate daughter of the Director of cocoa export here murdered by the rebelles here because of the political crisis going on here since four years ago…

Please do accept my sincere apologies if my mail does not meet your personal ethics although, I wish to use this medium to get in touch with you first because it’s the fastest means….

My name is Barr. Tunji Bello, I may have to trouble your sense of personal achievement and reward for an opportunity properly taken advantage of. I wish to notify you again that you were listed as a beneficiary to the total sum of US$ 9, 900, 000.00 …

I am the manager of bill and exchange at the foreign remittance INTERNATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANK OF GHANA PLC:I craveyour indulgence …

DID YOU INSTRUCT JANETH WHITE TO CLAIM YOUR FUNDS US$6.2M,CONTACT US NOW…

I am Wan Yonghong. I am a Chinese Citizen, and I reside in Hong Kong,where I  work in Private Banking  services in Standard Chartered Bank. I have an obscured business proposition for you …

I am Pamela Elisa Lugares personal assistance and mistress of the former controller of the philippine Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Carlos Garcia; who was charged with corruption and some other allegations but now courtmartialled and in house arrest…

Dear Sir, Best compliments of the day. I have a good client who wants to invest oversea in your country with about US$12.5M. My client is a retired General in the Liberian army …

Our firm provides a quick and confidential means to divest of businesses.  We focus on transactions that call for confidential and expeditious handling along with an ability to analyze and accept complexities that most institutional buyers reject…

I am contacting you in regards to a huge sum of money from a deceased account, who used to work as a contractor here in Abidjan, Cote D`Ivore. I need your assist …

] As part of our Multi Level Marketing Network, we seek capable individuals to work for us as our International representative In Arab such as KUWAIT,UAE,QATAR AND SO ON. Due to my very busy work schedule, I require …

Attn/ My Good Friend, I cashed the check due to expiry and deposited it with GLOBAL SPEED COURIER COMPANY,i travelled and will be back next 2 months.so contact the Director of GLOBAL SPEED COURIER COMPANY his name is ( DR DAVID AKA )…

I am making this chance contact and proposal to you because of the position you occupy and in the hope that we will establish a common mutual benefiting relationship in this regard. I head an audit committee in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation …

This letter is not intended to cause any embarrassment in whatever form, rather it is intended to contact your esteemed self, following the knowledge of your high repute and trustworthiness…

I am Mrs. Monika Kazim from Sao Tome and Principe, I was married to late Mr. Patrick Kazim the CEO of PATCAT Oil Mining & Exploration, I am 58 years old, I am suffering from a long time cancer of the breast …

I am Chung Wung Lee, Principal Assurance Manager for the China Trust Commercial Bank in China. I am getting in touch with you regarding the estate of my client and an investment placed under our banks management 7 years ago….

Please i am contacting you for a business venture in your country. Please, considering the recent political agitation / instabilities in my country, i have to take risk confiding in you for success. My late father deposited US$8.460.000.00 …

Elizabeth Rich First I must apologies to you for using this medium to communicate to you about this project I am the above named person from Cardiff, Wales. I was married to Mr Ronald Rich who worked with the British embassy in Kuwait for nine years …

WE WANT TO USE THIS OPPURTUNITY TO LET YOU KNOW THAT MRS CRISTINA LOAN FIRM NOW OFFERS LOAN ONLINE HERE IN SPAIN TO ANYONE IN THE WORLD. WE OFFER LOAN AT 0.5% INTEREST RATE.IF YOU ARE INTERESTED…

I know that this mail will come to you as a surprise as we never met before. I am the Foreign Remittance Manager of Barclays Bank Plc London, I hoped that you will not expose or betray this trust and confident that I am about to repose on you for the mutual benefit of our both families…

Hello, I apologize for not contacting you for a very long time. i have been worried seeking for a better way for the diamond diplomatic finance plc, to transfer your funds in the amount US$1,000,000.00 without any …

Greetings to you , Dear Sir, I am Dr George Kwami from the Ghana Government. Sir, Is that true that you have not receive your inheritance fund after the final endorsment and release order from the ministries of the said fund to you. Well…

Attn/ My Good Friend, I cashed the check due to expiry and deposited it with GLOBAL SPEED COURIER COMPANY,i travelled and will be back next 2 months.so contact the Director of GLOBAL SPEED COURIER COMPANY …

PERMISSION TO REMIT US$12 MILLION INTO YOUR COMPANY ORPRIVATE ACCOUNT. IT IS MY PLEASURE TO WRITE AND INFORMYOU OF A TRANSACTION INVOLVING THE TRANSFER OFUS12,000,000.00 TWELVE MILLION U.S. DOLLAR ONLY) INTO A FOREIGN ACCOUNT FOR SAFEKEEPING PENDING MY ARRIVAL FOR THE SHARING WITH YOU AS THE ACCOUNT OWNER INTO WHICH THE MONEY IS REMITTED. …

WE ARE PLEASED TO INFORM YOU TODAY 6TH OF AUGUST, 2008 THAT YOU HAVE JUST WON YOURSELF THE SUM OF US$4.5MILLION:REF REF:PB/04/736207152/UK….

Unltd. Promo Online wishes to inform you of the results of the E-mail Address Ballot Lottery international program held in Great Britain on 6th September, 2008. Your email account was picked as a winner of a lump sum payout…

From the mail I wrote to you, you may be wondering why should such a mail come to you. I am sorry for any inconveniences this may cause you but I believe that is how it has been destined by nature that we should meet. By reading my mail, I know you will understand that I am a banker, head of operations…

My name is Sir Udoka Nnaji. I am a Personal Assistant (PA) to Senator Osita Izunaso,, a member of the Nigerian Senate. Senator Izunaso is the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Oil and Gas and also former Minister of Energy in the past administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo…

Your Name And Your Contact Details Was Given To This Office In Respect Of  Your Total lnherited/Contract Sum  Owed To You Which You Have Failed To Claim Because Of Either Non-Compliance Of Official Processes Or Because Of Your Unbelief Of The Reality Of Your Genuine Payment.

Posted in General | 3 Comments

Fox News for Stupid People

Posted on September 9, 2008 by Kevin

As a rule I don’t watch Fox News because every time I do, I get insulted. I get insulted because every time, they insult my intelligence by some sort of propaganda track to mislead me.

Last night I was waiting in line at a restaurant and they had Fox News on. Fox played a nice clip of Obama criticizing Palin for “Being for it before she was against it” on the infamous “Bridge to Nowhere”. After the clip a Fox News commentator had the last word. Was that last word the results of researching the truth of what Obama said? Was it the insightful analysis from the commentator on the substance of the issue? Did they quote a rebuttal from McCain?. No. They dismissed Obama’s channenge BECAUSE some Democratic web site in Alaska supposedly conceded that Palin was against the bridge.

So Fox News thinks I’m stupid enough to accept a report on an unnamed web site that said something not quoted as the authority that Obama was wrong. Only a stupid person would fall for such misdirection.

The fact of the matter is that Obama was telling the truth. Visit factcheck.org if you’re smart.

Posted in Bad Commerce, Politics | 15 Comments