Obama Citizenship Denial (OCD)

I have written exhaustively about Obama Citizenship Denial (OCD) in another forum and under another name. I want to put a few summary thoughts here. Some links have been added in comments.

I don’t pay much attention to conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theorists view the world differently from others. Events have different causes; people have different motives. Given the huge number of people in the world, one would reasonably expect some to have fringe ideas, and some to have significant deficits in Critical Thinking. Both seem to be the case with OCD.

OCD is characterized by people believing things that are not well-documented and not believing things that are. They see everything through the filter of one thing, and so ignore all but one piece of evidence.

Part of the problem is the lawyer Philip J. Berg of Philadelphia. He filed a lawsuit against Barack Obama, the Federal Elections Commission and The Democratic National Committee with the United States District Court for Eastern Pennsylvania  alleging all sorts of things including fraud, but all focusing one way or another on an allegation that Barack Obama was not a “natural born citizen” of the United States. Berg himself is a lawyer, and he should know better. The briefs Berg filed are a farce, citing as evidence the Inside Edition television program and the Italian Wikipedia. Berg makes spurious legal arguments, makes wide ranging speculation for which there is no proof, cites anonymous witnesses, and blatantly misstates the law. Some people, because this is a Federal lawsuit, believe that the facts he states must be true, and in there lies the rub.

Berg is a real piece of work and so is his lawsuit. I would not be at all surprised to see Berg disciplined for his frivolous suit, his shoddy legal work and his public lies. But whatever comes of Berg, some will believe he wrote the truth.

I have seen people who believe things for which they have no evidence besides somebody’s blog. I have seen people believe they are experts without the most rudimentary evidentiary basis.

So much time and energy wasted on this hoax.

Posted in Educational Reports, Obama Citizenship Denial, Politics | 50 Comments

Critical Thinking

Some people are not very good at math, and some aren’t very good at drawing, and some aren’t very good at critical thinking.

You can’t expect everybody to be good at everything. Or as Lincoln said: “you can fool some of the people all of the time.”

It’s really frustrating trying to debate someone who thinks talk radio is evidence, or who can’t see a rhetorical fallacy. But I think I just have to get over it. I might chip away at fallacy, and offer a point on critical thinking now and then, but mainly I’ll just have to live with it.

[This is not to say that I don’t make these kinds of mistakes myself.]

Posted in Educational Reports, General | 3 Comments

Obama spoke to us as adults

Commenting on Obama’s speech on race, someone said: “he spoke to us as adults.” That’s a profound observation and in 6 words sums up the difference between the Obama campaign and the McCain campaign.

I am continually thankful for some of my high school education back in rural Alabama in the late 60’s. They took pains to teach us how to recognize propaganda and fallacy. When I asked my English teacher if I could write some propaganda for a class project, she said no. She said that there was no value in learning how to write that way because it was wrong. Since that time, I’ve looked at “spin” and innuendo, and guilt by association, and poisoning the well, and “get on the band wagon” in terms of right and wrong. I am also insulted when someone directs these things at me, because I am smarter than that.

Heaven knows that the McCain campaign is not so bad as some of the stuff on some conservative blogs, but it is still bad. Every time McCain brings out Bill Ayers, or lies about Obama’s tax plan, he is saying “I don’t trust you with the truth”. He is saying “my winning is more important than my integrity”. He is saying “you’re too stupid to realize what I’m doing”. It is condescending and it is insulting. Obama has been candid, forthright, and he spoke to us as adults.

Posted in Politics | 26 Comments

Reverse “Bradley Effect”

The “Bradley Effect” refers to a voter telling a pollster that they are going to vote for a black candidate, but not carrying through. This effect has even been found in exit polls in the past.

I discount the Bradley Effect in regards to Barack Obama because it did not appear in Obama primary election polling.

But how about a Bradley Effect working in the other direction. There are many Republicans who are appalled by Sarah Palin, but could they admit to their drinking buddies, spouses (or even to a pollster) that they would vote for the caricatured “most liberal Senator”?

The question of Palin votes vs Palin polls has never been tested nationally. I personally think that once in the voting booth, many Republicans will shudder, hold their noses, and vote Democrat. If there’s a landslide Democratic victory, I’ll take that as evidence for my thesis.

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Conservative cowardice or dishonesty?

I was driving through Alabama Wednesday–nothing but classical music on the public radio station, but there were plenty of Christian talk radio stations, one of which had an interview show with Phyllis Schlafly, the “anti-feminist” I remember from my youth, and now the celebrity on a conservative web site called eagleforum.org.

Schlafly was talking about Obama and William Ayres. She said that some investigator had developed evidence that Ayres had ghost-written Obama’s first book, Dreams from my Father.

A person of integrity takes a position and defends it. Did Schlafly say “I believe that William Ayres wrote the book”? No. Either she believes it and lacks the courage to say so, or she doesn’t believe it and puts the accusation out there dishonestly.

McCain essentially did the same thing in the final debate. He never said “Obama is a closet radical”, or “Ayers was Obama’s mentor” or “Obama is reckless in his associations”. Rather than showing the courage of conviction (surely McCain has the resources to find out the truth of the matter) he just flung an association like a handful of mud. If McCain were courageous and made a concrete accusation, he would be discredited if proven wrong. So he makes an innuendo that he probably doesn’t believe himself.

Dishonest or cowardly? Your pick.

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Supreme Court gets Ohio Voter Registration case right

…but for the wrong reason.

Ohio Republicans sued to have the results of comparisons between new voter registrations and existing state databases (e.g. motor vehicle) made available to local officials. The Supreme Court rejected the suit on the grounds that the Ohio Republican Party had no standing to sue under the law (not commenting on the merits of the suit).

Source: cnn.com, et al.

At first glance it seems a public good to prevent vote fraud, and that this may be done through weeding out bogus voter registrations, and comparisons to state databases sounds like a good tool to help with the weeding. There are two things wrong with this idea:

  • Voter registration fraud has little effect on vote fraud. This is because just having a name on a voter role doesn’t get you into vote. When Mickey Mouse shows up to vote, he might claim he left his ID in his other pants, but he won’t get to vote. No vote, no foul. If he shows a genuine ID, then he IS is some database, whether it matches or not.
  • Matching is error prone. This is how the 2000 election was stolen in Florida, not by butterfly ballots and hanging chads. Florida election officials purged the Florida rolls selectively using matching with national convicted felon databases–both felons who committed no crimes in Florida and by law could still vote, and non-felons who had names similar to convicted felons. Bad matching goes both ways.Consider the hypothetical case of “Washington George”. Mr. George, was mis-keyed in the state DMV database (as “George Washington”), but not the Voter Registration database. If Washington George shows up to vote he may be challenged and have to cast a provisional ballot because of an error.

In my day job, I work with state databases and I know they are in pretty bad shape across the board. I also know that most database matching techniques in the real world are abysmally bad. This doesn’t mean matching cannot be good, but that it usually isn’t.

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McCain – Obama debate 1

I only got to listen to the last half of the debate (audio only) and I gave the edge to McCain. McCain rattled more XXXX-istans than Obama and I thought Obama was struggling to get his points across comprehensibly. I did think the “Senator Obama just doesn’t understand” was overdone. Obama said he had gone to Eastern Europe with Sen. Lugar to oversee the securing of old Soviet missiles. McCain trumped Obama with the claim that he was partly responsible for originating the Nunn-Lugar bill that paid for securing those weapons. Whether McCain’s claim was justified or not, it rang true.

Imagine my surprise this morning to see the polls on CNN that gave the debate to Obama by a huge margin. But it may well be that the difference between my perception and the polls was that I only listened to the last half of the debate.

However, McCain made one big blunder and Obama called him on it.  McCain claimed that Obama had voted against funding the troops (I think twice). Obama replied that McCain had voted to fund the troops with no timetable for withdrawal, and that he had voted to fund the troops WITH a timetable (and both had voted against the opposite). He explained that the differences were about the timetable, not funding the troops. Obama was totally credible at that point, and it was clear to me that McCain had been caught trying mislead the voters with the old voting record manipulation trick. I think this was a hugely embarrassing moment.

I thought one of the substantive points of difference between Obama and McCain was on that preconditions thing. I don’t know how clear it was to the viewers what was going on. When Obama says that he is willing to meet with anyone without preconditions, he means “he” in the sense of “his administration” not himself personally. McCain insisted that it be taken literally and that Obama personally was going to meet with anyone thereby giving that person credibility by having talked with the President of the United States. This was disingenuous of McCain. McCain’s interpretation was, in fact, so unreasonable that I wonder if Obama realized what McCain meant.

Posted in Politics | 2 Comments